Coronavirus Outbreak in India may peak in late-June : IACS Study
Shocking Study report by IACS Kolkata
According a study by Kolkata based Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science (IACS) , the Covid-19 infection may peak in end- June nationally. But the IACS also said ‘ the peak itself could be halved with increased coronavirus testing and stringent lockdowns in targeted zones .
The “bio-computational modelling” study aims to predict the progress of Covid-19 in India and assess the impact of lockdown by modifying infection rates and obtaining vest and worst scenarios. Going by the trend of the model’s curve and effective reproduction number (2.2) , more than 1.5 lakh would get infected at the peak , which could appear in late-June .
The effective reproduction number denotes how many people, on an average , an infected persons is currently infecting. The number 2.2 means that 220 people are getting infected by 100 people. But the model also has a silver lining with appropriate measures . Such as –
- Early diagnosis , isolation of covid patient
- Isolate infections to small pockets while in lockdown
- Prevent inter-pocket transmission
- Reduce effective reproduction number
- Business should adopt roaster-balanced workforce to ensure social distancing
IACS director Sabtanu Bhattacharya said a team if the association;s scientists , led by Raja Paul , and co-workers from its school of Mathematical & Computational Sciences conducted the comprehensive study on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovery Death (SIRD) model – to predict the progress of coronavirus outbreak in India .
The SIRD is a highly simplified approach that takes into account parameters like the number of people susceptible , infected, recovered and dead, and effective reproduction number for computation, and then compares it with two other large democratic countries (Germany and the United States of America , in this case) in the relevant time frame (January to April 2020)
(News Source – TOI)