Coronavirus Outbreak in India may peak in late-June : IACS Study

Social Distancing

Shocking Study report by IACS Kolkata

According a study by Kolkata based Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science (IACS) , the Covid-19 infection may peak in end- June nationally. But the IACS also said ‘ the peak itself could be  halved with increased coronavirus testing and stringent lockdowns in targeted zones .

The “bio-computational modelling” study aims to predict the progress of Covid-19 in India and assess the impact of lockdown by modifying infection rates and obtaining vest and worst scenarios. Going by the trend of the model’s curve and effective reproduction number (2.2) , more than 1.5 lakh would get infected at the peak , which could appear in late-June .

The effective reproduction number denotes how many people, on an average , an infected persons is currently infecting. The number 2.2 means that 220 people are getting infected by 100 people. But the model also has a silver lining with appropriate measures . Such as

  • Early diagnosis , isolation of covid patient
  •  Isolate infections to small pockets while in lockdown
  • Prevent inter-pocket transmission
  • Reduce effective reproduction number
  • Business should adopt roaster-balanced workforce to ensure social distancing

IACS director Sabtanu Bhattacharya said a team if the association;s scientists , led by Raja Paul , and co-workers from its school of Mathematical & Computational Sciences conducted the comprehensive study on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovery Death (SIRD) model – to predict the progress of coronavirus outbreak in India .

The SIRD is a highly simplified approach that takes into account parameters like the number of people susceptible , infected, recovered and dead, and effective reproduction number for computation, and then compares it with two other large democratic countries (Germany and the United States of America , in this case) in the relevant time frame (January to April 2020)

(News Source – TOI)

Tags : coronavirus outbreakCovid peak late JuneIACS StudySIRD report