Democratic turnout advantage in pre-election vote narrows in key states
In North Carolina, the margin between Democrats and Republicans who have already cast their ballot has been cut in half since last Monday, according to the most recent party data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organizations.
The data shows Democrats led Republicans in ballots cast in the Tar Heel State by 32 percentage points (50%-18%) at the beginning of last week, but that margin has narrowed to just 16 points (43%-27%).
This is not predictive of an ultimate outcome, as polls suggest Democrats across the country are more likely to vote prior to Election Day than Republicans.
Looking only at ballots cast by mail, data from the state board of elections shows Democrats have a 30-point lead over Republicans as of Thursday morning. Democrats also lead in in-person voting so far, but the gap is narrower — only 8 points.
Fourty-eight percent of mail ballots cast so far have come from Democrats, while 31% have come from Republicans as of Thursday morning, according to the Florida Secretary of State’s office.
The breakdown is reversed when it comes to in-person early voting, which began in some Florida counties on October 19. Fourty-six percent of those ballots have come from Republicans so far, and 37% have come from Democrats.
According to Catalist, the current Democratic lead in total ballots cast in Florida narrowed from 21 points (50%-29%) since the beginning of last week to 13 points (46%-33%) in the most recent data.
Overall, there has been a surge in pre-Election Day voting across the country amid the coronavirus pandemic, as voters are turning out in record numbers to cast their ballots by mail or in person where available ahead of November 3.
More than 45 million Americans have already cast their general election ballots in 48 states and Washington, DC, according to a survey of election officials by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist.
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